The West African gold producer we have spent the past months on is paying for a $453M mine build out of its own cash flow, and the market is pricing it as if that were not happening. On our numbers production rises from 150,000 oz this year to 216,000 oz by 2030, cash never falls below $37M at a year end, and the company has $359M in the bank by the end of 2029.
Enterprise value of $443M against $339M of free cash flow to the end of 2029 after paying for the whole build, and $626M to the end of 2030
1.97 Moz of reserves at $225 per ounce, against $246 to $859 for four listed West African producers
No debt and no new equity needed to get there in our base case
At 5x our 2030 free cash flow, plus the cash built by the end of 2029, the shares are worth about $6.60 on a fully diluted basis, against $2.00 today
